Trade Union Friends of Israel

The Hamas Victory and the future of the PA

Since the shock result of the elections on January 25th the international community, Israeli’s and Palestinians have been struggling to come to terms with its ramifications. Although frustration at lack of progress in the peace process may have played a small role in the Hamas victory, the overwhelming factors in the result were a protest against Fatah’s perceived corruption, administrative incompetence and infighting.

Hamas’ efficient health services and social programs, that in several areas had replaced those of the PA, its anti-corruption election message and disciplined campaign gave it the platform to win 76 of the 132 seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council. The size of the Hamas majority ended at a stroke 40 years of Fatah dominance of Palestinian politics and squeezed the smaller parties that had been expected to take up to 25-30% of the vote, creating major problems for President Abbas, Israel, the PGFTU and the international community.

Who controls the Security Forces?

Wrangling continues between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas over control of Palestinian Security services, which at present report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Abbas resigned as Palestinian Prime Minister in 2003 as a result of control of the security services being held by then President Arafat, a position that now would make it very difficult for him to argue for Presidential control. However at present the Palestinian security forces at all levels are almost entirely militia loyal to Fatah, and on many occasions have been involved in direct confrontations with Hamas. In recent months there has been criticism from Palestinian and International sources about the bloated and factional nature of the Palestinian security services, used in part to provide work for Fatah militiamen.

Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas Parliamentary list said that it would oppose any attempt to shift security control from the Cabinet to the President. In a conciliatory statement he said that "what is important to us is how the security services function, not who its members are…. we intend to reform these organizations, but nobody will lose his salary or his position”. However on Wednesday February 1st a bomb was detonated outside of the house of Suleiman Abu Mutleq, director-general of the Preventive Security Agency in the Gaza Strip. Mutleq told Reuters "I accuse Hamas and its leadership of the attack on my house. A group from Hamas's armed wing [Izz-el-Deen al-Qassam] detonated a 3-kg explosive device against my home". In response members of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade linked to Fatah surrounded Mutleq’s home, shooting into the air and vowing revenge on Hamas. This attack follows a drive-by shooting of a senior leader of Hamas' armed wing by unknown assailants on Monday 30th.

What to do with international aid?

The Quartet (the EU, USA, UN & Russia) statement on 30th January outlines the difficulty the international community is facing responding to the current situation but outlines a sensible course of action for the short term. The Quartet concluded “that it was inevitable that future assistance to any new Government would be reviewed by donors against that Government’s commitment to the principles of non-violence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations.” The statement did not suggest that cuts should come into effect immediately.

Any attempt to strictly adhere to procedure and stop funding to a Hamas led PA, because Hamas is proscribed as a terrorist group by the EU, USA & UK, in the short run would be catastrophic. The Palestinian Authority was already in a dire financial situation prior to last Wednesday’s election and was apprehensive that it would be able to find the money for this month’s wages for public sector employees. In the long term if Hamas is unprepared to recognise the state of Israel or disarm its military wing, the international community is unlikely to continue directly funding the PA in the same way. In this scenario steps would need to be taken to channel funds through NGO’s or directly through President Abbas’ office, however bypassing the government is far from the most effective way of developing Palestinian infrastructure. Attempts will also be made to find alternative sources of funding from the Arab world.

What the result means for Palestinian Trade Unions

Hamas’ victory is worrying for Palestine’s internationally recognised Trade Union Centre the Palestinian General Federation of Trade Unions (PGFTU). When the TUFI delegation met with the PGFTU in Nablus on January 24th, on the eve of the election, General Secretary Shaher Sae’d and other PGFTU Officials spoke of their hopes for a Fatah victory although their concern about the performance of Hamas was clear.

The PGFTU has traditionally been close to Fatah and in recent months come under increasing pressure from so-called ‘independent workers committees’ linked to Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Abla Masroujeh, head of the PGFTU’s Women’s Department talked of the work that it had been doing to improve women’s rights, especially encouraging their independent participation in the elections and raised concerns about the detrimental affect a Hamas victory might have for women’s rights.

The PGFTU is the sole democratic trade union centre in Palestine and remains committed to a two state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict as well as representing Palestinian workers. TUFI encourages all British unions with contacts at the PGFTU to send them your support and look for ways to assist them in these difficult times.

What the result means for Israel

In recent years the Israeli government has claimed that there has been no partner on the Palestinian side with which to negotiate. Israel believed President Arafat to have played a role in orchestrating the violence, then because the avowedly pro-peace and negotiation President Abbas lacked the political strength to reign in militants. Regardless of whether those previous assertions were correct, the election of Hamas, certainly in the short-term, will lead to a further deterioration in relations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Prior to the Palestinian vote there had been widespread anticipation that following the Israeli election in March there would be scope for the resumption of negotiations between the two sides. The Hamas victory has put an end to such hopes for the immediate future. Though some Hamas moderates have talked of the possibility of a long-term Hudna (Ceasefire) with Israel if the Palestinians were to get an independent state on the 1967 borders, it is far from clear that this is the official Hamas position and so far there has been no indication that it will bow to international pressure to disarm or accept the existence of the state of Israel.

Whilst it is possible that negotiations could be conducted solely through President Abbas, or with independent ministers that Hamas may bring into the government to fill internationally focused cabinet positions, it is unlikely that meaningful progress can be made whilst Hamas has the ability to block any deal in the Palestinian Legislative Council and has not moderated its positions. Israel has temporarily suspended its procedures by which it collects Palestinian taxes and customs duties and transfers the funds to the Palestinian Authority, a payment worth $55 million that was due on Wednesday 1st February will be held in trust pending further developments. The Hamas victory may also affect international plans to develop Gaza’s economy that had been started following last years Israeli disengagement.

Israel’s troubled withdrawal from illegal settler outposts

Israel has been taking steps to remove illegal (under Israeli Law) settlers who have set up homes without the permission of the Israeli or Palestinian Authorities. The main areas being focussed on at present are the Amona Outpost, near Ramallah and the Jewish squatters in the wholesale Market in the Palestinian Town of Hebron. A deal was brokered with the Israeli Defence Forces to allow for the peaceful evacuation of the squatters on Monday.
However negations failed to bring a peaceful resolution to the standoff at Amona. On Wednesday February 1st Israeli security forces moved to evacuate and demolish the nine house outpost. There have been violent clashes between security forces and thousands of right wing demonstrators, there have been over 200 reported injuries including three ultra-right wing Knesset Members.

In disgraceful scenes the night before the evacuation, a Palestinian man was beaten and several cars were trashed by settlers near the village of Za'atra, not far from the settlement of Tapuah. Cabinet minister Roni Bar-On attacked the actions of the Amona settlers and their supporters "We will not allow any law-breaker, even if he is a member of Knesset ... to harm the state of Israel as a state of law. We restrained ourselves in Gush Katif. We restrained ourselves in Hebron, in Yitzhar, and in outposts for a long time, even if people there physically injured security forces there. That's finished. The era of restraint has come to an end.”