TUFI January 2006 Update: Israel in turmoil as Sharon’s health fails
In a developing situation that has sent shockwaves around Israel and the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was rushed to hospital last night suffering from a severe stroke and brain haemorrhage. Following a nine hour operation, he remains in a “critical condition”. Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has assumed Prime Ministerial control and held an emergency cabinet meeting. National elections are already scheduled to take place in Israel on March 28.
The political impact of Sharon’s condition
The political ramifications of the almost certain withdrawal of Ariel Sharon from Israeli public life are immense and the outcome is still very unclear. Ariel Sharon’s new political party Kadima, founded on less than two months ago will be lead in the short term by Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, however its long term viability is under severe scrutiny. Founded as a vehicle for Sharon and his policies, drawing politicians and supporters from both Likud and Labor, it is difficult to know what path it could take in his absence. Recent polls had suggested that Kadima would win at least 40 seats in the next election, but without Sharon the situation may become very different. Kadima’s electoral list has not yet been decided and its structures and manifesto have not been formalised and were to be decided by Sharon. It is likely that Olmert will retain the leadership of Kadima although other potential leadership candidates include Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz, it is unlikely that Shimon Peres would stand for the leadership, given that the majority of Kadima members have come from the Likud.
Whether Kadima disintegrates or carries on under a new leader it seems likely that Sharon’s former party Likud and it’s new leader Binyamin Netanyahu will benefit from the current situation. Netanyahu who played a key role in forcing Sharon out of the Likud, now finds himself the only established political figure at the head of a major political party, as voters may search for political stability. During his time as Prime Minister from 1996-1999 he is seen to have undermined the Oslo Peace process, whilst his neo-liberal economic policies are accused of contributing to rising inequality in Israel. More recently he belatedly opposed the Gaza disengagement and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet. However despite his security experience the public mood is for some form of territorial compromise with the Palestinians in return for an end to violence, which is at odds with his hard line approach.
The situation for Labor is more complex, the Amir Peretz campaign so far has been focused on issues of social inequality rather than security, an area Sharon was believed to dominate. Now that the election race is wide open, Labor will need to convince Israeli voters that it can keep them safe as well as reduce inequality. Peretz may need to build bridges with the former military and security figures within the party such as Ehud Barak, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and Matan Vilnai following recent tensions. However this new political situation does present Labor with an opportunity to regain political momentum that had been lost following the creation of Kadima.
Problems in Palestine
Over recent weeks the Palestinian Authority has been plagued by a series of problems. Gaza has seen a rapid rise in lawlessness over recent weeks with a spate of kidnappings including that of British peace activist Kate Burton and her family. Rioting ensued when police arrested the local Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade leader in connection to the kidnappings that culminated on January 4th when gunmen from the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades commandeered two bulldozers and smashed through a section of the wall on the Gaza-Egypt border then shot and killed two Egyptian security troops and wounded 30 after breaking through the Gaza border crossing.
Diplomatic wrangling continues over the issue of Palestinian voting in East Jerusalem for the January 25th Palestinian Legislative elections, where Israel is currently refusing to allow the ballot from taking place due to Hamas’s involvement. Under the terms of the 1995 Interim Agreement (‘Oslo II’) between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, that laid the framework for Palestinian elections, prohibits the participation of armed groups and organisations that promote racism from standing in elections.
However Hamas has been allowed to stand in the legislative election by the Palestinian Authority, a breach of the agreement but one that would have been difficult to avoid given its rising popularity which poses a real threat to the electoral dominance of Fatah. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has hinted that the vote might have to be posponed if the situation is not resolved, however most observers believe that such a move would be prompted as much by fear of big Hamas gains in the election as the dispute with Israel.